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Beer Marketer's INSIGHTS
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Beer Marketer's INSIGHTS, our flagship newsletter, is published 23X a year. For the last 47 years, it has frequently been the first and often only publication to report the most important beer industry facts, trends, and insights. Each issue features four info-packed pages. Inside, you'll find the latest news and numbers about the US beer business, with a special focus on exclusive articles and analysis. Readers of Beer Marketer's INSIGHTS get the info necessary to stay abreast of the latest industry events, and the understanding of those events. Here's just a small sampling of what you'll find inside:
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04/27/2020
Seltzers Hit Another Gear; Growing Way Faster This Yr; White Claw and Truly Pass Big Test
Hard seltzers flying off shelves even faster lately, with another huge surge, again accelerating growth, gaining far more share. Seltzer segment up 303% yr-to-date thru Apr 11 in Nielsen all outlet, and 348% last 4 weeks. Gained 4.5 share of $$ YTD to 6.2, up 5.2 for 4 weeks. At same time, top 2 seltzer brands, White Claw and Truly withstood onslaught from some very big guns aimed at them. Bud Light Seltzer launched in Jan with major splash and lotsa fanfare while Corona Seltzer entered mkt a bit later. Those 2 supposedly coming with close to $100 mil in mktg between ’em. Yet each so far captured modest share. Meanwhile, White Claw and Truly barely skipped a beat. They still have 80 share of segment and growing at a faster clip than last yr, undoubtedly aided as biggest seltzer brands in pantry-loading period. They passed their biggest test yet, with flying colors. Hard seltzers got close to 8 share in latest week thru Apr 11 in Nielsen all-outlet (7.8). At 7.2 for last 4 weeks. Never got much past 6 last yr. That raises prospect of whole ‘nother level of growth ahead of this summer, when comps tuffer. Mike’s…
Publishing Info
- Year 2020
- Volume 51
- Issue # 8
NYC megdistrib Manhattan Beer has unique view of what it’s like to sell beer in epicenter of COVID-19 pandemic. The disease is already deeply affecting its biz across so many dimensions: health of workforce, organizational structure, effect on sales, what the future might look like. What’s happening in NYC is a possible peek into future for other parts of US (hopefully not as severe). Manhattan founder/ceo Simon Bergson and coo Ed McBrien provided window into how this crisis has already changed Manhattan Beer.Dozens of Cases of COVID-19 Both Simon and Ed emphasize that NYC “just the leading edge” on effects of COVID-19, so “use the time to get prepared…. Start planning now,” urged Simon. Dozens of Manhattan Beer employees already diagnosed with COVID-19 and over 100 in quarantine. New cases come almost every day. Importantly, already 50 out of quarantine too, Simon notes, and back to work. By now Manhattan has well-established protocol for employee cases and “very good sense of what’s required,” said Ed. You have to screen and trace contacts, where they’ve been, who they’ve talked to, including customers. And then notify anyone potentially affected. Manhattan strictly follows CDC guidelines, regarding “close and prolonged contact,” i.e. anybody in…
Publishing Info
- Year 2020
- Volume 51
- Issue # 7
Above premium beer jumped 6 mil bbls, 7% last yr to nearly 95 mil bbls, INSIGHTS estimates. Averaged 4.5 mil bbls of growth a yr last 5 yrs. This is the healthy half (or nearly) of the biz, as we’ve written. With the coming economic dislocation from the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s even possible that this multi-year trend could change. All the more reason to take a look at this snapshot of above premium market at a point in time, 2019. The scorecard looks very, very different in terms of share, size and momentum. And at least through March of this year, this is where the action is.Constellation remains #1 in the High End, selling 22.5 mil bbls for a 23.7% share of all high end segments. But that’s almost all Mexican imports so far. Constellation growth slowed to 6%. That meant it lost 0.2 share of the High End last yr. AB is #2 in the High End, sold almost 19 mil bbls of above premium volume INSIGHTS estimated. Up 1.6 mil bbls, 9%. All that growth and more from Michelob Ultra brand family, almost 60% of AB’s above premium volume. (AB craft biz up strong too.) AB #2 above…
Publishing Info
- Year 2020
- Volume 51
- Issue # 6
02/14/2020
Constellation’s Got 6 of Top-10 Imports, 60+ Share of Segment; Brand Heineken Just 10 (excerpt)
As Mexican beers climbed past 70 share of total import mkt in US – and over 12 share of entire US beer mkt - Constellation grabbed over 60 share of imports in 2019. That in-cludes 6 of top 10 import brands, as Premier knocked Tecate out of the ring in 2019. Meanwhile, Modelo Especial reached big milestone last yr: became #1 import brand, as it passed portfolio-mate Corona Extra. By over 1 mil bbls. And, as noted last issue, it will mark another milestone any month now. Modelo Especial will soon become first import brand ever to ship over 10 mil bbls to US in a 12-mo period. All in, imports up just 756K bbls, 2.1% in 2019, Beer Inst reports from Commerce Dept da-ta. That’s smallest gain for imports in 5 yrs, as tuff Dec decline (-13%) knocked a full point off Jan-Nov trend. And that’s while import beer shipments got nice assist from no-alcs in 2019, predominantly Heineken 0.0. Without 125K-bbl boost from no-alcs, imports up just 630K bbls, 1.8%. Even so, imports now about 18 share of total US shipments. Passed subpremium beers as 2d-largest volume segment. Way ahead in $$. ...
Publishing Info
- Year 2020
- Volume 51
- Issue # 3
Taxpaid shipments jumped 610,000 bbls, 4.7% in Dec, estimates Beer Inst. Tho taxpaids -2% thru Sep, 1% gain Oct-Dec improved trend to -0.8% for 12 mos, down 1.4 mil bbls. Imports up 1 mil bbls thru Nov. So if imports didn’t tank in Dec, looks like US biz could have been closer to flat for the yr. At AB’s SAMCOM, execs exulted about an industry that’s getting healthier. That’s certainly true in IRI universe, where volume up 2.3% for yr thru Dec 29, including 3.6% pop for 12 wks. While total beer trend nowhere near that good, plenty of folks forecast return to growth. Last week, Evercore ISI’s Robert Ottenstein wrote seltzer “juggernaut” is “poised to propel US beer biz to growth in 2020.” And he, like others, forecasts a doubling of segment in 2020 alone, having dramatically upped his estimate in just a few mos. That keeps happening with seltzers, which are again exploding outta the gate in 2020. White Claw up over 300% and Truly nearly 200% for 4 wks thru Jan 11, prior to launch of Bud Light Seltzer. How much will Bud Light Seltzer (plus Corona Seltzer, Vizzy) change competitive dynamics for seltzer? How much will…
Publishing Info
- Year 2020
- Volume 51
- Issue # 2
01/13/2020
Mike’s, Constellation & Boston Combine for Near 5-Mil Bbl Gain While AB/MC Shed 4 Mil+ (excerpt)
As beer biz fragments, seltzers explode and taprooms abound, shipments numbers get harder and harder to measure with accuracy. But preliminary estimates for 2019 US volume confirm trends apparent all yr. Mike’s, Constellation, Boston and Diageo got significant growth while all other top-10 brewers down slightly (or more) in 2019. In fact, 3 big gainers combined for approx 4.8-mil-bbl increase last yr as top 2 shed over 4 mil bbls. Importantly, neither AB nor MC improved on their avg volume trends over last 10 yrs. We estimate AB -2.35 mil bbls, -2.8%, MC -1.95 mil bbls, -4.1% in US. As result, each gave up approx 1 share of US shipments. Those trends similar to how they performed in 2018. Then too, depending on final figs, AB may have dipped below 40 share for 1st time in over 30 yrs. Such continued underperformance helps explain AB’s strategic pivot to above premium away from core and MC’s “revitalization” plan and name change announced Oct 30. Constellation slowed to mid-single digit growth, but still up very respectable 1.3 mil bbls, 6%+ (with barely a drop of seltzer) and hit 11 share in US, we estimate. But Mike’s was growth leader in 2019, going…
Publishing Info
- Year 2020
- Volume 51
- Issue # 1
More...
Not a lotta hard data about where hard seltzers source their drinkers and volume from. With 80 mil cases or so expected to be sold this yr, it kinda matters. And if seltzer doubles next year, as many expect, it really matters. Suppliers talk about “keeping people in the beer aisle,” or bringing them back. They also suggest a significant portion of volume is coming from wine, spirits and/or other bevs. Mike’s sr veep Sanjiv Gajiwala told Chi Trib, citing data from Numerator Insights, that: 53% of White Claw consumers come from beer drinkers, 9% from FMB drinkers. But that’s % of drinkers. Is % of volume from malt bevs higher? Boston’s Dave Burwick told Yahoo almost 2/3 of Truly volume from wine/spirits. At Dec 5 Brewbound Live, Nielsen’s Danelle Kosmal said significant portion of seltzer purchases are incremental to other alc bev buys. Seltzer buyers spend on avg $477/yr on alc bevs, she said. That’s $219, 85% more than the avg drinker spends. Can Seltzer Add Drinkers and Increase Per Caps? Some say seltzers will build aggregate demand, tho that’s not in #s yet. ISI Evercore’s Robert Ottenstein wrote that while drinker penetration is 50-50 male-female, volume penetration skewed…
Publishing Info
- Year 2019
- Volume 50
- Issue # 23
Goalpost keeps moving for Mark Anthony Group and Mike’s Hard Lemonade, fueled by explosive success of White Claw. Mark Anthony Group, parent co of Mike’s, now expects to double next yr to $4 bil in revs, according to founder Anthony von Mandl. And that’s following 85% growth at Mike’s this yr. Anthony and prexy Phil Rosse gave lotsa insights into MAG’s origins, what makes ’em tick and lotsa #s too, speaking at Beer Insights Seminar and elsewhere. Mike’s expects to sell 85 mil cases in fiscal yr ending Mar, said Phil, and looks to get to 10% of value (about 215 mil cases) then 10% of volume (300 mil cases). That level took Constellation Brands decades of growth to achieve. At 85% growth, Mike’s would be up 2.2 mil bbls. That’s more than Constellation ever grew in a single yr. Asked about White Claw (and the industry’s) “transformational moment” at INSIGHTS seminar, Anthony broadened meaning to “how millennials and now Generation Z have changed the world.” So White Claw’s success and this moment “about the ability of social media as an example to transform and create brands like White Claw...overnight.” According to Anthony, “all of the axioms of CPG, of…
Publishing Info
- Year 2019
- Volume 50
- Issue # 22
What a difference a year makes. In Nov ’18, Pabst went to court over acrimonious charges that MillerCoors tried to illegally end their contract brewing production deal. Case settled before jury could decide and both sides claimed to be happy relationship would continue, presumably well into next decade. Fast forward a year: Pabst announced deal with City Brewing that City would take over most of Pabst’s production over next 5 years, beginning in 2021. Deal inked to last through 2040, which suggests some confidence on Pabst’s part given current trends. “This partnership provides clarity and certainty for our employees and our customers, and will allow us to innovate more effectively,” Pabst ceo Eugene Kashper said. Details of Molson Coors-Pabst contract unknown, but gotta figure Pabst innovations pretty low on priority list for MC breweries. Then too, Molson Coors brewery footprint under “constant review,” as ceo Gavin Hattersley acknowledged on recent conference call. New Canadian production coming on and many expect Molson Coors will transfer some production for US to Canadian breweries. Giving up Pabst production makes that move even easier. Kinda ironic that even when MC told Pabst back in 2015 that it couldn’t produce Pabst after 2020, contract would…
Publishing Info
- Year 2019
- Volume 50
- Issue # 21
Drinking, on its own, just isn’t enough. Consumers want more from their drinking occasions, as Nielsen analysts have told the biz for yrs. This pushes consumption away from traditional outlets (and licensees) into an ever-growing set of new spots to tip one back. Satisfying that search for “more” can mean something simple like offering food or short-term specials like trivia or live performances. But increasingly, attracting digital-savvy consumers requires harder work, bigger investment to create experiences worth the price of admission and a raving Instagram post to boot. Number of traditional on- and off-premise outlets that sell beer dipped 0.2% in 2018 to about 634,000, according to Nielsen TDLinx data. That’s after years of solid growth. Between 2010 and 2018, total alcohol-selling outlets grew by 20%, almost 110,000, NBWA economist Lester Jones noted recently, also citing TDLinx. But that doesn’t include lodging, recreation and casinos, Nielsen points out, and only captures about 72% of total on-premise outlets, it estimates. Add in fast expansion of what Nielsen terms “third channel” outlets like festivals, sporting events and alc bev producer tasting rooms. During same 2010-2018 period, number of TTB-permitted alc bev suppliers jumped by almost 150% to almost 27,500, Lester showed. Given…
Publishing Info
- Year 2019
- Volume 50
- Issue # 16
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Mid-Year Review Webinar from Beer Marketer’s Insights
US Beer Industry Review at the Half presented by Benj Steinman with special guest
Gerry Khermouch
on Non-Alc Opportunities for the Beer Industry
Wednesday, August 12, 2020
1pm Eastern Time
90-minutes including Q&A