Beer biz continues down 2% for 4 and 12 weeks thru 12/15 in Nielsen data published this morn by Morgan Stanley in mid-cycle update. That compares to down 0.9% for 52 weeks. And with biz getting softer again this fall, the usual suspects are bearing a disproportionate brunt of the dropoff. Several of the industry’s largest brands are down high single digits.
Bud Light down 8.6% for 12 weeks, 2 points steeper than its 52-week trend. Trends got worse during football season. Bud also down 7.2%. At least Mich Ultra up 11.6% for 12 weeks and now Natty Light on the rise (with 15-packs): up 9% for 12 weeks. Meanwhile, Coors Light also down 7% for 12 weeks. Only Miller Lite did slightly better among top 4 brands. But even it’s down 3% for 12 weeks now, not setting world on fire. Another big brand turned surprisingly soft nationally in last few mos. Corona Extra recently down almost as much as Bud Light, Bud and Coors Light. Corona Extra down 5.6% for 12 weeks. Even if Corona franchise presently remains very healthy, up about 7% last we saw, those Corona Extra trends gotta be concerning for Constellation. But at least Modelo Expecial still up 10.6% for 12 weeks.
Constellation overall remains up 8.5% for 12 weeks, while AB down 3.3% and MC down 5.3%. Neither AB nor MC getting much in way of price these days either. Only averaging 0.4% more price per case, while Constellation up 1.1%. Meanwhile, Heineken USA volume continues softer than AB and MC. Down 7.2% for 12 weeks, with another large brand, Heineken also down 5%. And Boston Beer still up double digits, 10.9% for 12 weeks. But Sam Adams franchise down 8%. Total Boston trend is 4 points slower than 52-week trend.