Domestic brewers' taxpaid shipments down over 800,000 bbls, 1.7% Apr-Jun, estimates Lester Jones at Beer Inst. Imports flat, we estimate, tho Jun number not yet reported. For 6 mos, US shipments down about 2.2%, but recall that depletions off more like 3%, with AB and MC selling-day adjusted depletions each off near 4%. Innovation not really driving improved overall numbers for AB or MC so far this yr. AB shipments down another 440,000 bbls, -1.7% in Q2. That's better than expected but also well ahead of depletions trend of -3.6%. Pushed AB's yr-to-date shipments dropoff to 1.7 mil bbls, -3.4%, just slightly ahead of -3.8% depletions trend. And AB now down 700,000 bbls, 0.7% for 12 mos, after having gained 0.7% in calendar 2012. MillerCoors posted its weakest shipments and depletions trends since the advent of MC JV in 2008. Shipments off nearly 900,000 bbls, 5.3%, and depletions down 4.4% in Q2. For 6 mos, MC shipments off 1.2 mil bbls, 4%, and 12-mo trend is -3%, back to its 2010 and 2011 calendar-yr trends.
Crown continues to outperform overall and import mkt, driven by outsized growth of Modelo Especial. Crown also doing much better in its biggest states, up 6-9% yr-to-date in Tex, Calif and Fla, than overall. Q2 shipments up about 125,000 bbls, 3.3%, putting Crown's 6-mo gain just below 200,000 bbls, 3%. Crown was only top 5 brewer up for 6 mos, we estimate, and it has passed 6 share mark. Gotta go back to 1999 to find last time supplier other than AB, Miller or Coors had over 6 share of US beer biz. That was Pabst right after it bought most of Stroh. HUSA shipments dipped slightly in Q2, closer to depletions trend than in tuff-comp Q1. Pabst hangin' in around even yr-to-date.
|Bbls (000)||Chg||Bbls (000)||Chg||Bbls (000)||Chg|
|Q2 13||Q2 12||bbls||%||6Mos 13||6Mos 12||bbls||%||12Mos 13||%|
|All figures are BMI estimates of shipments, subject to revision.|