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08/04/2013

Back to Bad Old Days of 2010-11; Top 2 Shed Almost 3 Mil Bbls in 6 Mos; Crown/Craft Up

Second qtr trends not quite as soft as Q1 in US beer biz, but not much better. And 6-mo trends much more like tuff 2010-2011 than 2012, which increasingly looks like an outlier. AB and MC combined lost near 3-mil-bbls and down over 1 share to 72.2 in 1st 6 mos 2013.

Domestic brewers' taxpaid shipments down over 800,000 bbls, 1.7% Apr-Jun, estimates Lester Jones at Beer Inst. Imports flat, we estimate, tho Jun number not yet reported. For 6 mos, US shipments down about 2.2%, but recall that depletions off more like 3%, with AB and MC selling-day adjusted depletions each off near 4%. Innovation not really driving improved overall numbers for AB or MC so far this yr. AB shipments down another 440,000 bbls, -1.7% in Q2. That's better than expected but also well ahead of depletions trend of -3.6%. Pushed AB's yr-to-date shipments dropoff to 1.7 mil bbls, -3.4%, just slightly ahead of -3.8% depletions trend. And AB now down 700,000 bbls, 0.7% for 12 mos, after having gained 0.7% in calendar 2012. MillerCoors posted its weakest shipments and depletions trends since the advent of MC JV in 2008. Shipments off nearly 900,000 bbls, 5.3%, and depletions down 4.4% in Q2. For 6 mos, MC shipments off 1.2 mil bbls, 4%, and 12-mo trend is -3%, back to its 2010 and 2011 calendar-yr trends.

Crown continues to outperform overall and import mkt, driven by outsized growth of Modelo Especial. Crown also doing much better in its biggest states, up 6-9% yr-to-date in Tex, Calif and Fla, than overall. Q2 shipments up about 125,000 bbls, 3.3%, putting Crown's 6-mo gain just below 200,000 bbls, 3%. Crown was only top 5 brewer up for 6 mos, we estimate, and it has passed 6 share mark. Gotta go back to 1999 to find last time supplier other than AB, Miller or Coors had over 6 share of US beer biz. That was Pabst right after it bought most of Stroh. HUSA shipments dipped slightly in Q2, closer to depletions trend than in tuff-comp Q1. Pabst hangin' in around even yr-to-date.
Bbls (000) Chg Bbls (000) Chg Bbls (000) Chg
Q2 13 Q2 12 bbls % 6Mos 13 6Mos 12 bbls % 12Mos 13 %
AB 25,430 25,870 -440 -1.7 48,130 49,820 -1,690 -3.4 97,510 -0.7
MillerCoors 15,910 16,800 -890 -5.3 29,010 30,230 -1,220 -4.0 57,730 -3.0
Crown 3,810 3,687 123 3.3 6,460 6,277 183 2.9 12,485 2.3
HUSA 2,300 2,325 -25 -1.1 4,250 4,375 -125 -2.9 8,335 0.4
Pabst 1,655 1,675 -20 -1.2 3,025 3,025 0 0.0 5,950 2.0
Others 8,075 7,679 396 5.2 15,977 15,406 571 3.7 29,643 5.7
Total 57,180 58,036 -856 -1.5 106,852 109,133 -2,281 -2.1 211,653 -0.2
(Taxfree) 1,270 1,316 -46 -3.5 2,445 2,420 25 1.0 5,105 7.0
US Total 55,910 56,720 -810 -1.4 104,407 106,713 -2,306 -2.2 206,548 -0.4
All figures are BMI estimates of shipments, subject to revision.
As we noted a few issues back, most 2d-tier brewers havin' tuffer time in 2013 than last yr. Yuengling down about 5% for 6 mos. Diageo reported its US malt bev biz down 7% for 12 mos thru Jun; beer -2%, FMBs -10%. Mike's up 6% thru Jul following double-digit gain in Jul. Meanwhile craft volume +13% for 6 mos, estimates Brewers Assn. That's +900,000 bbls and easily passed 7 share of US biz. Boston reported 20-21% shipments gains in Q2 and 6 mos, tho a lot of that is cider. Some craft brewers have slowed, others rockin'. Among biggest craft brewers, trends all over the lot. Up low-mid single digits: Sierra Nevada, New Belgium, Shiner and Harpoon. FX Matt about even. But Deschutes up low double-digits; Brooklyn, Stone and Bell's up in 17-22% range. Then too, Lagunitas flyin' at +88%, and on road to sell over 400,000 bbls in 2013 (see below). A handful of others up 30%+: Founders, Sweetwater, Firestone Walker and Oskar Blues.

Publishing Info

  • Year: 2013
  • Volume: 44
  • Issue #: 14
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