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Improved May Scans Pull YTD Volume Decline Back to Less than 1%; AB Up for 4 Wks, MC Even

Solid 2% gain for 4 wks thru May 19 in Nielsen all outlet scans improved yr-to-date volume trend to -0.9%.  So latest period cut YTD dropoff rate in half compared to trend thru Apr 21. Better trends felt across the board: suppliers, segments and big brands.  AB up 1.2% in latest period, MC even as premium lights off just 1.5% (vs

-4.7% yr-to-date).  Bud Light and Coors Light down 2-3% for 4 wks, vs more than 5% declines yr-to-date.  Lite scored a 2.4% gain for 4 wks. Above premium back on track, +7.5% and up nearly 2 share of volume, 2.3 share of $$.  Crafts outperformed imports: +6.3% vs +4.9%. Cider jumped nearly 20%; FMBs +7.4%. Michelob Ultra picked up its pace, +21%.  So did Modelo Especial. Dos Equis and Strongbow back in the black for HUSA, but only modest improvement in brand Heineken.

As noted yesterday, new brands from several top suppliers among best performers.  Top 10 growth brands include Michelob Ultra Pure Gold and Bud Light Orange, 2 Corona extensions and Angry Orchard Rosé.  Those 5 brands grabbed 1.2 share of volume, 1.8 share of $$ for 4 wks. And Sol volume +261%. Natty Light cranked it up: +6.7%.  Not feeling the love: New Belgium, Shock Top, Leinie Shandy, Ritas, Redd’s (base), Bud Light Lime and Mil’s Best/Light all down double digits.

INSIGHTS Express, Vol 20, No 105; May 30, 2018


April Taxpaids +181K Bbls, 1.3%, Aided by Extra Day; Yr-to-Date US Trend -2%, Aided By Imports  

Domestic brewers’ taxpaid shipments reversed 4-straight mos of declines with modest 181K-bbl, 1.3% gain, estimates Beer Inst economist Michael Uhrich.  Extra shipping day helped; lousy weather, later Easter and ongoing Golden logistics issues pressured Apr. Selling day adjusted, Apr taxpaids -3.6%, Michael estimates.   For 4 mos, taxpaids off 1.45 mil bbls, 2.7%. Modest import gain in Q1 (Apr # not reported yet) offset some of that loss. So, looks like US biz down 1.3 mil bbls, 2% yr-to-date.  

INSIGHTS Express, Vol 20, No 102; May 24, 2018


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