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Familiar Tune in June: Taxpaids Down 643K Bbls, 3.8%, BI Economist Estimates; -3.2 Mil Bbls YTD  

Turns out, Q2 domestic brewers’ taxpaid shipments not much better than Q1.  Jun taxpaids -643K bbls, 3.8%, estimates Beer Inst economist Michael Uhrich, following 1-mil-bbl drop in May, modest Apr gain.  So Q2 taxpaids -1.5 mil bbls, -3.3%. That’s only slight improvement vs 1.6-mil-bbl, 4.1% decline in Q1. Thru Jun, domestic brewers’ shed 3.2 mil bbls, 3.7%.  Import gain thru May (Jun not reported yet) offset that by 785K bbls, so known yr-to-date trend is -2.4 mil bbls, -2.4%.

Q2, 6-Mo Preview: Not Pretty  As we work up our Q2/6-mo/12-mo table for top brewers (MC and Heineken numbers comin’ next week), what pops out: 4 of top 5 brewers/importers, collectively about 80% of biz, down in mid-single-digit range for 12 mos thru Jun 2018.  Constellation up near 10%, but AB, MC, HUSA and Pabst each off 4-7% over last yr. Not a recipe for beer biz health. Details in next issue of beer marketer’s INSIGHTS.

INSIGHTS Express, Vol 20, No 143; July 27, 2018


First Half 2018 Scans; Coupla Key Changes vs Calendar 2017, But Lotsa Dittos Too

Constant flux amid stubbornly consistent overarching trends.  That’s been story of beer biz for a decade. Last issue we highlighted key changes in scan data so far in 2018: overall trend improved slightly, Boston’s turnaround and new brands/FMBs much bigger factor.  But some very familiar themes too for 1st half compared to 2017: continued AB/MC softness, ditto for big mainstream brands, natch, and craft sluggish at best, especially for most-established brands.  All in, volume -0.4% Jan-Jun in Nielsen all outlet scans, $$ sales +1.2%. That’s a modest improvement over volume -0.9%, $$ +0.5% in calendar 2017. Biz picked up in Q2, especially May thru early Jun, but slowed down in back half of Jun.  First peek at Jul data not so hot, suggesting no pop from Jul 4. Volume down 0.4% for 4 wks thru Jul 7, following volume gains for 7 straight 4-wk periods. What’s more, for 2 wks around Jul 4, volume -1.5%, a “rather grim” performance as MC blog acknowledged.

Trade up picked up just a touch in 2018, with above premium segments gaining 1.9 share of volume, 2.4 share of $$, each 0.2 more than in calendar 2017.  Imports, FMBs and superpremiums getting lion’s share of that, while craft and cider each picked up 0.1 share. Meanwhile premium share losses near 2 full points this yr again.  Economy dipped 0.2 share of volume, 0.5 share of $$ with soft pricing.

excerpt, beer marketer’s INSIGHTS, vol 49, no 13; July 23, 2018



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