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Jun Taxpaids -5.2%; Total US Shipments Volume Off Near 1% in 1st Half; Better than STR Trend?  

With one less shipping day, domestic brewers taxpaid shipments tumbled 850K bbls, 5.2% in Jun, Beer Inst economist Michael Uhrich estimates.  For 6 mos, taxpaids -1.3 mil bbls, -1.5%. Import gain thru May was 346K bbls, 2.3%. With Jun import report still to come, looks like total US shipments down about 750K bbls -0.7% or so in 1st half.  Meanwhile, AB InBev reported industry STRs -2.8% in Q2, following 1.6% decline in Q1. That implies STRs off more than 2% Jan-Jun. A one-pt difference amounts to about 1 mil bbls. What’s the diff? Not totally clear, but higher inventories and tuff-to-measure taproom biz (that’s not STRs) probably part of explanation.     

INSIGHTS Express, Vol 21, No 150; July 25, 2019


Modest July 4 Bang for Beer; Volume -0.4% for 4 Wks thru Jul 6 in Nielsen Scans  

Beer biz improved in most recent scans, tho still runnin’ down slightly for 4 wks and yr-to-date.  Following -1.3% volume drop in Jun, substitution of Jul 4 week for 1st wk in Jun moved 4 wk trend to -0.4% in Nielsen all outlet scans.  That’s about same as -0.3% volume trend yr-to-date. Dollar sales up solid 2.8% for 4 wks, +2.1% yr-to-date.  Hard seltzers clearly drove the improvement. Indeed, FMBs were only segment where 4-wk trend (+28.5%) stronger than yr-to-date trend (+23%).  Imports a point off longer term trend at +3.9% for 4 wks. Superpremiums really slowed (+5.9% vs +10.6%), even while Michelob Ultra still +12.7%.   Only other segment up for 4 wks: lowest-priced budget beers, +1.1%. Busch Light went positive for 4 wks. Otherwise, you know the drill: mainstream doldrums continued (see below), Modelo Especially hot (+20% for 4 wks), flavored bevs dominated largest growers (7 of top 10, if you include Mich Ultra Lime Cactus, 6 if you don’t), AB and MC each down 3.6-3.7%, above premium gaining close to 3 share for volume and dollars, etc.  

INSIGHTS Express, Vol 21, No 142; July 16, 2019



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