CSDs Slow Dropoff; Sports Drinks, Waters, Energy Drink, Teas All Sluggish in Supers   CSD volume fell 5.5% in supermarkets during 4 wks thru May 18, with the pain distributed evenly among all major players, per IRI data reported by Morgan Stanley’s Bill Pecoriello.  As Bill noted, that puts CSDs in line with YTD trend of    -5.1%.  Each of top suppliers off in 4-6% range while pricing remained positive, up 2-4% for each co during period.  Coca-Cola volume fell 6.4% (going vs 9% drop a yr earlier) on avg price gain of 2.7%.  PepsiCo fell similar 6.4% on price gain of 2.2%. Cadbury Schweppes (now Dr Pepper Snapple Group) fell 6.2%, on avg price hike of 4.3%.  Private label brands slipped 5.8%, for slight improvement over previous few mos, on avg price increase of 3.6%. 

Bottled-water trends in supers improved slightly vs previous mos but still came in below YTD trends.  Segment rose 1.7% on avg price cut of 5.4% for 4 wks, while being up 2% YTD.  A 19% price drop during most recent period helped boost Coca-Cola water volume 22.3%, for best gain since Sep 07.  That left Coke waters up 2.6% YTD.  Dasani surged 33% last 4 wks on 21.6% price cut.  That’s steepest cut for Dasani pricing in at least 18 mos.  PepsiCo took opposite tack, raising avg price by 4.4% for period and seeing volume tumble 18.6% as result.  Down 1% YTD.  Aquafina tumbled 24% for 4 wks despite slight avg price decline.  Nestle volume down 4.6% on avg price cut of 5.7% for latest mo.  Poland Spring volume up 20.6% thanks to steep 16% price cut.  Nestle waters off 9% all told in supers YTD.  Meanwhile, enhanced-water segment showed slowing in growth to 2% for period after growing double-digits each mo for well over a yr.  Prices edged up 2%, lowest price increase in well over a yr as well.  Glaceau gain pace slowed to 26% in supers last 4 wks vs 134% a yr ago.  YTD, Glaceau up 33% in supers on avg price decline of 3%. 

Sports drinks couldn’t sustain momentum from strong double-digit growth in April and fell 9.2% in supers last 4 wks on 2.8% price increase.  Gatorade volume fell 7.3% after gain of 20% prior mo.  For YTD, Gatorade was up 4.2% on avg price up 1%.  Powerade volume dropped 14% after 16% gain previous 4 wks.  It’s now off 3.2% YTD in supers on avg price gain of 1.6%.  Energy drinks rate of growth slowed to 6% in latest 4 wks, smallest increase for segment in at least 18 mos. YTD, segment is up 9% with prices (-1%) down slightly.  Red Bull up 9% last 4 wks, on avg price cut of 2%.  Monster up 12% on 4% price hike.  Coca-Cola/Rockstar volume fell 7% on 1% price gain while PepsiCo brands jumped 25%, thanks to 9% price cut.  Red Bull up 13% in supers YTD vs 18% gain for Monster, 16% for PepsiCo while Coke energy brands off 2%.  Note, tho, that supers remain distant #2 channel to core c-stores, not measured in this data.

Once-hot RTD teas continued to fall off in supers.   Segment was down 3.7% last 4 wks vs 33.5% gain a yr earlier.  RTD teas were up 7% Jan-Feb, slipped to 3% gain in Mar and now down each of last two 4-wk periods. For YTD they’re still in positive territory (+2%) on avg price decline of 4%.  PepsiCo tea volume flat on price cut of 6% for last 4 wks while Coca-Cola brands down 17.7% on 8% price cut.  Cadbury (Snapple) volume dropped 27% last 4 wks as prices climbed avg of 7.6%.  Ferolito Vultaggio (AriZona) up 4.5% last 4 wks on avg price cut of 4.6%.  YTD, Coke teas and Snapple down 10% and 5% respectively while Pepsi teas up 2%, AriZona up 7.5% and private label up 11%.  So still-independent AriZona continues to outperform big guys while Coke remains weakest player, suffering decline even after price cuts.